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Antaike Analysis: The Uprising Momentum of Lead Price is Limited on the Better Supply of Secondary Lead

2021-02-23 16:57:13

Beijing, Feb. 23 (Antaike)--LME 3-month lead price reached $2,176.5/t during the Spring Festival holiday, the highest since December 2019, and SHFE active contract lead price reached 15,995 yuan/t after the holiday, slightly weaker than other base metals.


On supply side, most primary lead smelters were in normal production, and output increased steadily, and inventory of finished products at lead smelters increased nearly 50kt due to the blocked transportation. Secondary lead smelters had abundant of raw materials inventory and their utilization rates increased during the holiday, and inventory of finished products grew over 10kt year on year. After the holiday, battery companies just consumed the inventory built before the holiday, and purchase of raw materials was limited.


Lead inventory just flew into smelters and overall inventory changed not too much during the holiday, but inventory will flow to market finally. Meanwhile, the weak consumption season is coming, and battery inventory increased to some extent during the holiday, which would restrict the consumption growth and then the lead price. However, macro economy will still give market strong support, especially the loose liquidity on global market, thus it is not hard for lead price to reach the previous high of $2,260/t and 16,500 yuan/t, but its uprising momentum is weaker than other base metals and price will finally turn to market fundamental.




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